Thursday, May 5, 2011

The BN will fall in the next General Election

The Malaysian General Election will be called soon. It will be in June or July this year, definitely before August. The latest indicator was the postponement of Mr Ling Liong Sik's trial to August 1st. The BN does not want that embarassing trial going on during the elections.

The BN has been engaged in a desperate battle to regain lost ground before calling the elections. But they are blunderers, and are increasingly out of touch with the common voter. The votes that they lost to the opposition in 2008, have stayed with the opposition.

As example, we can look at the Hulu Selangor constituency. The BN won it by 14,483 votes in 2004. They lost it by 198 votes in 2008 to PKR. They won it back in a by-election in 2010 but only by 1,725 votes. 14 thousand vote margins are a thing of the past. In 2011, they will lose it again.

Nor will BN win back Selangor. In fact, they may very well lose Tanjong Karang, Sabak Bernam and Pandan, all parliamentary seats which they won by fairly slim margins in 2008, as well as the related state seats.

The BN looks at Malaysians through race-tinted glasses and they have different strategies for different races.

For the Chinese, it is threats, as reflected by Najib's transparent blackmail attempt. Not voting for the MCA, he warned, will cost the Chinese representation in the Cabinet. He was assisted by the dubious Chua Soi Lek, who tried to pretend that the PM was merely stating a fact. No one, of course, was fooled.

The Malays are served up an unappetising fare of scandal and innuendo to try to get them to reject Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar and PAS are the key to the opposition Malay vote. So the BN applies the dual strategy of trying to destroy Anwar's character, while at the same time trying to win over PAS to their side. Both strategies have failed.

The MIC meanwhile is complacent enough to believe that it's the usual tactics of buying the rural Indian vote for pittances, will succeed. They have long given up on the urban Indians, who would be too embarassed to have anything to do with the MIC. It would turn them into the butt of jokes among their peers, if nothing else.

The MIC's strategy will not work this time, as the voters are more knowledgeable and the opposition is making headway into the estates. Even if the MIC succeeds, the Indian swing will be made irrelevant by the Chinese vote shift.

Sarawak, which the BN arrogantly called it's 'fixed deposit', has woken up. The BN will lose at least 10 parliamentary seats there.

Najib's 1Malaysia strategy is in tatters. It was a 2-faced strategy in any event, 1Malaysia for the non-Malays, 1Melayu for the Malays as promoted by Utusan and seconded by Mr.Muhyiddin, the Deputy Prime Minister. It crumbles under the weight of it's own contradictions.

They have nothing, they will lose, and Malaysia may finally be free.

- Malaysia Chronicle

Written by V Vijay, Malaysia Chronicle

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